Last updated on December 25, 2025
KUALA LUMPUR, 29 September 2025 – Asian markets posted modest gains on Monday while the U.S. dollar dipped, as investors weighed the risks of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay key economic data, including the September payrolls report.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet top Democratic and Republican leaders later today to discuss extending government funding. Without a deal, a shutdown would begin Wednesday—the same day new U.S. tariffs on heavy trucks, patented drugs and household items take effect.
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) said in a note that if the shutdown extends beyond the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on October 29, the Fed may be forced to rely on private-sector data. “On the margin, we think this may lower the likelihood of an October cut, but only marginally,” they added.
Markets currently imply a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October, with around 65% probability of another in December. BofA estimated a shutdown would shave only 0.1 percentage point off U.S. growth per week, though permanent layoffs could weigh more heavily on payrolls and consumer confidence.
Regional Stock Moves
- Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slipped 0.8% but remains up 5% for September ahead of the ruling LDP leadership vote this weekend.
- South Korea’s KOSPI (.KS11) jumped 1.5%, extending monthly gains to 7.8%.
- China’s CSI300 (.CSI300) rose 0.7% as investors position ahead of Golden Week holidays.
- MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) firmed 0.4%, up nearly 4% for the month.
In U.S. futures, S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.4%, and Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE and DAX futures all rose 0.4%. Analysts expect fourth-quarter buying momentum to provide support, with history showing the S&P 500 has risen 74% of the time in Q4.
Currency and Commodities
The dollar index eased 0.2% to 97.952. The euro edged up to $1.1726, while the dollar slipped 0.4% to 148.89 yen after last week’s rally.
In commodities:
- Gold hit another record, climbing to $3,808 an ounce.
- Brent crude fell 0.4% to $69.84 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude dropped 0.5% to $65.37, as oil flows resumed through Iraq’s Kurdish pipeline to Turkey after a 2.5-year halt.
- Reuters also reported OPEC+ is likely to approve an output hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday.
Looking Ahead
Central banks will remain in focus, with Australia’s RBA expected to hold rates at 3.65% on Tuesday after three cuts this year. A flurry of Fed and ECB officials are also due to speak this week, providing further clues on monetary policy paths.
