Last updated on December 25, 2025
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Smelting Corporation Bhd (MSC), one of the world’s largest tin producers, is set for a strong earnings rebound by 2026, as rising tin prices and tighter global supply reshape the outlook for the metal, according to Apex Securities.
In an initiation note, Apex projected that MSC’s earnings could jump 50% in 2026 once production at its Pulau Indah smelter normalises after recent downtime and feedstock shortages.
“Output is anticipated to stabilise and gradually improve by 2027, supported by better plant utilisation at Pulau Indah and improved input supply,” Apex said. The brokerage launched coverage with a “buy” call and target price of RM1.51, joining UOB Kay Hian, which also has a buy rating with a RM1.37 target.
Tin’s strategic revival
Shares of MSC have climbed 17% year-to-date, riding on firmer tin prices. The company, which can refine up to 60,000 tonnes annually from mines in Perak and Pahang, accounts for about a quarter of global refined tin supply.
Tin prices surged to a three-year high in March amid supply disruptions from Indonesia and Myanmar, before easing to about US$34,262 per tonne, still well above the pre-pandemic 10-year average of US$20,000–22,000.
Apex believes the uptrend is sustainable.
“We believe this uptrend will persist, underpinned by persistent supply constraints and robust demand stemming from the proliferation of electric vehicles, increased consumption of electronic devices, and the global push towards ESG-aligned initiatives,” the research house said.
Global supply squeeze
The tin market is facing structural tightness, with Myanmar’s export ban, mining curbs in Indonesia and Africa, and declining ore grades globally. Against this backdrop, MSC’s London Metal Exchange certification and partial upstream integration give it an edge to capture higher smelting premiums and tighter spreads.
A gas pipeline explosion earlier this year temporarily disrupted MSC’s production, but also reinforced its significance as a linchpin in global supply chains.
With tin becoming increasingly critical for electronics, EVs and renewable infrastructure, MSC’s rebound is being closely watched by investors positioning for long-term commodity exposure.
