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Energy Prices Set for Sharpest Surge Since 2022 as Middle East Conflict Strains Global Markets

By Tim Clark3 min read

Washington, 4 May 2026 – Global energy prices are projected to rise by 24% in 2026, marking their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the Middle East conflict sends a severe shock across commodity markets and raises fresh concerns over inflation, trade costs and global growth.

According to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, overall commodity prices are forecast to climb 16% this year, driven by higher energy prices, rising fertiliser costs and record-high prices for several key metals. The report signals a significant reversal after several years of easing commodity prices, placing renewed pressure on governments, businesses and consumers already navigating a fragile global economic backdrop.

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Author

  • Tim Clark is a Senior Geopolitical Analyst for The Ledger Asia, specializing in the intersection of international relations and market stability. With over a decade of experience, Tim provides deep-dive insights into Indo-Pacific security, global supply chain resilience, and the strategic competition between major powers.

    Previously a consultant for leading international think tanks, he focuses on how shifting diplomatic landscapes and maritime disputes impact corporate governance and trade policy. At The Ledger Asia, Tim’s analysis equips readers with the clarity needed to navigate the complex regulatory and economic environments of Southeast Asia and beyond.