Food inflation is becoming a market risk again, as climate pressure, war disruption and higher input costs move from farms into grocery bills.
Investors usually watch oil, interest rates, currencies and central banks for the next inflation shock. But the next warning sign may be much closer to home: the dinner table.
Global food prices are rising again, and the timing is uncomfortable. The world is dealing with a powerful El Niño, renewed disruption around the Black Sea, conflict-linked energy pressure and higher costs for fertiliser, diesel and transport. These may sound like distant supply-chain problems, but they eventually arrive in a very familiar place: rice bowls, cooking oil bottles, bread shelves, coffee cups and restaurant menus.
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