London, 6 November 2026 – The global oil market is showing signs of returning towards excess supply despite elevated prices and continuing geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.
According to Reuters, analysts are observing a recovery in oil flows alongside weaker consumption caused partly by high energy costs.
JPMorgan estimates that global oil supply exceeded consumption by approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
The figures suggest that the market balance may be changing after months of disruption linked to the Iran war. However, an emerging surplus does not necessarily guarantee an immediate decline in oil prices.
The market continues to face uncertainty over production, shipping routes and the availability of different petroleum products.
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