San Jose, 29 September 2026 – Adobe expects referrals from artificial-intelligence tools to US retail websites to rise 130% year on year during the November-December holiday season. The figure in its 2026 holiday forecast measures traffic from shoppers who click through from AI services, not a 130% rise in online sales or completed AI-driven purchases. That distinction is central to judging how quickly the technology is changing commerce.
The company expects total US online holiday spending of US$275.1 billion, up 6.7% from a year earlier. It projects Cyber Week sales of US$47.5 billion, about 17.3% of the season’s total, and Cyber Monday sales of US$15.1 billion. Those are forecasts rather than realized results; discounting, employment conditions and the eventual mix of products could alter the outcome.
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