Barclays Sees Two More Fed Hikes After Warsh’s Hawkish Signal

Washington, United States, 31 August 2026 – Barclays now expects the United States Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before year-end after Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his clearest signal that inflation remains the central bank’s overriding concern. The revised call marks a significant change from the institution’s previous expectation that rates would remain unchanged through the rest of 2026.

Barclays projects a 25-basis-point increase in September followed by another quarter-point move in December. The forecast followed Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he said policymakers would have work to do if they lacked confidence that inflation was returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. His comments placed price stability ahead of market hopes for easier financial conditions.