KUALA LUMPUR/BEIJING – A potential face-to-face with US President Donald Trump, a desire to reaffirm China’s commitment to ASEAN, and an opportunity to advance regional trade deals amid tariff tensions are among the factors that could prompt Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the ASEAN Summit in person this October, analysts say.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Aug 8 that he “believed” Xi would join the Oct 26–28 meetings in Kuala Lumpur, though Beijing has yet to confirm. If he does, it would break a decades-old tradition of sending the Chinese premier instead; the last time a Chinese president attended in person was Jiang Zemin in 1997. Xi’s most recent participation was virtual in 2021 for ASEAN-China’s 30th anniversary.
Analysts view Xi’s possible attendance as a strong signal of goodwill and a bid to play a more active role in shaping ASEAN’s agenda—especially with Washington confirming Trump’s participation, his first ASEAN Summit appearance since 2017.
Former Malaysian ambassador Ilango Karuppannan called Xi’s potential visit a “diplomatic win,” particularly if paired with Trump’s presence, offering a rare platform for high-level US-China engagement on neutral ground.
Creating the ‘Right Conditions’
Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, would need to create a conducive environment for Xi’s attendance—this could include arranging a Xi-Trump meeting, addressing mutual trade concerns, and ensuring smooth ceremonial and logistical arrangements.
Sharon Seah of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute noted that Trump would likely attend if the visit was perceived as yielding tangible gains, perhaps via a trilateral ASEAN–China–US leaders’ dialogue. Xi, she said, might need strong US signals of willingness for bilateral talks before committing.
Experts also point to China’s domestic economic considerations and the broader geopolitical climate. The recent 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce, avoiding steep duties, could pave the way for a productive encounter—though other venues, such as the APEC Summit in South Korea in November, remain possible.
Strategic Implications
Xi’s attendance could boost talks to upgrade the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area and advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact. It would also be a statement of China’s intent to strengthen integration with its neighbours, countering potential US-led efforts to limit its economic influence in Southeast Asia.
Still, some analysts note that Xi’s recent visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia in April make another trip soon less likely, and that established protocol may prevail, with Premier Li Qiang representing China instead.
ASEAN as Neutral Ground
If Xi attends, a meeting with Trump would be highly anticipated given their last in-person encounter was at the 2019 G20 in Osaka. Seah stressed that ASEAN’s value lies in being neutral territory for dialogue, with potential to set the tone for Sino-US relations for years ahead.
Recent US statements—such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s rejection of decoupling and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call for “strategic stability”—may also encourage a recalibration in ties.
A Legacy Moment for Malaysia
Anwar has hinted at possible attendance by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, which, alongside Xi and Trump, could make the summit the bloc’s most high-profile ever. Analysts say delivering tangible results would be the true measure of success.
While expectations for a Xi-Trump breakthrough remain modest, even a temporary easing of tensions could benefit ASEAN. Xi’s presence could also aid in mediating disputes, such as the recent Cambodia–Thailand border flare-up.
As Ren Xiao of Fudan University put it: “China is not necessarily competing for influence in ASEAN. As long as it follows its neighbourhood diplomacy principles and does its work well, that will suffice.”
Source: CNA
