Oxford Economics Estimates Fresh US-Canada Trade Tariffs to Escalate Effective Bilateral Duty Rates to 6.9%

Washington, 26 August 2026 – A comprehensive macroeconomic impact assessment published by leading global forecasting consultancy Oxford Economics estimates that newly proposed bilateral trade tariffs and non-tariff regulatory barriers between the United States and Canada will elevate the effective average cross-border duty rate to 6.9%, inflicting structural friction across highly integrated North American manufacturing supply chains and trimming projected regional economic growth.

The trade analysis models the cumulative economic consequences of targeted import duties imposed on critical industrial categories, including primary aluminum, structural steel, commercial timber, and specialized automotive components. According to Oxford Economics, escalating trade protectionism threatens to disrupt decades of tariff-free industrial integration formalized under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), triggering supply chain realignments and adding upward cost pressures across cross-border freight corridors.