Palm Oil Could Trade Above Soyoil in 2027 as Indonesia Supply Tightens

Mumbai, 30 September 2026 – Palm oil could return to a premium over soyoil in 2027 if weather damage and Indonesian biodiesel demand tighten the vegetable-oil balance, according to a forecast from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. The call is conditional, not an observed price change. A premium last appeared in 2024; whether it returns will depend on actual crop yields, fuel-policy implementation and competing oil supplies. That distinction matters for food processors, fuel producers and investors exposed to Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s plantation sectors.

The association’s chairman, Eddy Martono, projects Indonesian palm-oil production at 56.6 million tonnes next year, down 3.7% from the previous year. He expects biodiesel use to rise 18.5% to a record 17.4 million tonnes. On those assumptions, exports would fall 14.9% to 26.5 million tonnes, the lowest volume since 2016. These are industry estimates for 2027, not official production or trade results, and they should be tested against weather, planting and government data as the year unfolds.