LONDON, 13 April 2026 – Global oil prices could surge as high as US$150 per barrel if the United States proceeds with its planned naval blockade targeting Iran, according to energy analytics firm Onyx Commodities, underscoring the escalating risk of a severe global energy shock.
The warning comes amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply, has become the focal point of disruption risks. Analysts say any sustained interference with flows through the strait could significantly tighten supply in an already fragile market.
A Potential Supply Shock of Historic Proportions
The Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial share of the world’s oil shipments, and disruptions there have already pushed crude prices sharply higher in recent weeks. Brent crude has surged past the US$100 mark, with peaks reaching as high as US$126 amid the ongoing crisis.
Onyx analysts caution that current price levels may still underestimate the scale of potential disruption.
If the blockade is fully implemented and sustained, the resulting supply squeeze could rival historic oil shocks, with prices potentially climbing toward US$150 per barrel, levels that would significantly impact global inflation and economic growth.
Why the Blockade Matters
A naval blockade represents a far more disruptive scenario than intermittent conflict or sanctions.
Unlike targeted supply constraints, a blockade could:
- Severely restrict tanker movements
- Delay shipments across global supply chains
- Increase insurance and shipping costs dramatically
This would create a cascading effect across energy markets, amplifying volatility and tightening supply beyond immediate production losses.
Inflation and Policy Risks Intensify
A move toward US$150 oil would have far-reaching macroeconomic consequences.
Higher energy prices would:
- Accelerate global inflation
- Delay central bank rate cuts
- Increase production and transport costs across industries
For central banks already navigating a delicate balance between growth and inflation, such a surge could force a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy, further weighing on global markets.
Asia Faces Disproportionate Impact
Asian economies are particularly exposed to the risk.
Countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports routed through the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained disruption could:
- Weaken regional currencies
- Pressure trade balances
- Trigger policy interventions
For Malaysia, while being an oil producer provides some buffer, higher energy costs could still feed into inflation and affect domestic consumption patterns.
Markets Enter a New Phase of Volatility
The possibility of oil reaching US$150 signals a broader shift in market dynamics where geopolitics, rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals, is dictating price movements.
Investors are now navigating a binary environment:
- Escalation → supply shock and higher oil prices
- De-escalation → rapid price correction and risk-on rally
The current trajectory suggests that energy markets will remain highly volatile, with price swings closely tied to geopolitical developments.
