MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd saw its shares dip on Tuesday as analysts downgraded the stock to a ‘sell’ position, reacting to earnings well below expectations and a dim outlook clouded by a potential influx of Thai sugar. The company posted a core net profit of just RM7.1 million for the first half ending June 30, 2025, a figure that included a hefty RM22 million adjustment related to net realisable value and onerous provisions—resulting in earnings that amount to merely 29% of its full-year forecast.
Reflecting the bleak outlook, BIMB Securities Research sharply reduced its earnings projections: a 48% cut for FY2025, a 68% reduction for FY2026, and a staggering 72% downgrade for FY2027. The research firm cited the twin pressures of anticipated weaker average selling prices (ASPs) and shrinking profit margins as primary concerns.
Adding to the uncertainty is the threat of Thai sugar entering the Malaysian market, a consequence of China’s new ban on liquid sugar imports. According to BIMB, such a development could further depress ASPs. The firm also flagged bearish NY11 raw sugar prices amid abundant global supply and warned that volatile foreign exchange rates could erode earnings further.
As one of only two local sugar refiners—alongside the unlisted Central Sugars Refinery Sdn Bhd—MSM’s operations are closely watched. On the stock front, MSM’s share price slipped by around 1.5% to close at approximately 98 sen, marking a year-to-date decline exceeding 19%.
In a similar vein, MBSB Research also downgraded MSM from ‘neutral’ to ‘sell,’ expressing skepticism about the company’s near-term recovery. The analyst house anticipates that any turnaround may only materialise next year, with persistent weak demand and a narrowing ASP premium in both industrial and export segments continuing to weigh on profitability.
