Australia’s Rate Outlook Tightens as Energy Costs Revive Inflation Risk

Sydney, 22 September 2026 – Australia’s next interest-rate decision is becoming a more consequential test for borrowers and investors as energy costs revive inflation concerns. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash-rate target stands at 4.35%, and its monetary-policy board is scheduled to meet on 28–29 September. A forecast for a further increase is not a decision: the bank will announce its own outcome after the meeting. That distinction matters when markets treat a changing economist call as though it were already policy.

Economists who had expected the central bank to hold have begun to revise their views. One forecast now calls for an increase at the coming meeting and sees the possibility of another in November. ANZ and UBS have also shifted their rate paths, with forecasts pointing to a possible 4.85% cash rate after two rises. Those are projections, not official targets, and each depends on inflation, demand and the board’s assessment of how previous tightening is working.