AI Productivity Distribution Emerges as a New Inflation Variable

Milan, 21 September 2026 – Central banks may need to look beyond headline productivity forecasts and examine who receives the economic gains from artificial intelligence, because distribution could determine whether the technology proves inflationary or disinflationary. Fabio Panetta, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council and governor of the Bank of Italy, has argued that the path of labour income, consumption and automation will shape the monetary-policy consequences.

The distinction matters because AI can lift output through different channels. If the technology creates new tasks, raises expected wages and strengthens household confidence before the full productivity benefit arrives, aggregate demand could accelerate first. That sequence may prolong price pressure, particularly in service sectors where capacity adjusts slowly. Central banks would then face the difficult task of distinguishing a temporary investment boom from a persistent change in inflation dynamics.