Bangkok, 22 August 2025 – Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra faces one of the most consequential verdicts of his political life today, as a Bangkok court prepares to rule on charges of royal defamation that could see the 76-year-old jailed for up to 15 years.
The case, rooted in comments Thaksin allegedly made during a 2015 interview with South Korean media about the military coup that ousted his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, has become a flashpoint in Thailand’s long struggle between elected populist leaders and the entrenched royalist-military establishment. Because of the kingdom’s strict lèse-majesté law—commonly referred to as Section 112—the details of Thaksin’s remarks cannot be reported, as doing so may itself constitute a criminal offence.
The verdict, expected at 10 a.m. local time, lands at a politically sensitive moment. In less than a week, the courts will also rule on whether Thaksin’s daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, can remain in office. Together, the two rulings could mark a dramatic turning point, potentially ending the Shinawatra family’s two-decade grip on Thai politics.
For more than 25 years, Thaksin has been the central figure in Thailand’s turbulent political landscape. Twice elected prime minister in the early 2000s, his populist policies and overwhelming electoral victories infuriated royalist and military elites who accused him of corruption and nepotism. He was ousted in a 2006 coup and spent 15 years in self-imposed exile, only returning to Bangkok in August 2023—the same day his Pheu Thai Party secured a governing coalition with its former conservative rivals, sparking speculation of a political bargain.
Upon his return, Thaksin was sentenced to eight years in prison for graft and abuse of power dating back to his premiership. Instead of serving time behind bars, however, he was admitted to a police hospital citing health issues. Within days, King Maha Vajiralongkorn reduced his sentence to one year, and by February 2024, he was released under an early release programme for elderly prisoners. His treatment has triggered another legal challenge, with a verdict due in September, on whether his early release was valid given that he never served time in a prison cell.
The lèse-majesté law, which criminalises any perceived insult, defamation, or threat against the monarchy, carries penalties of up to 15 years in jail. Prosecutions under the law have spiked sharply since the wave of anti-government protests in 2020, many of which included unprecedented public criticism of the monarchy. According to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, more than 280 people have been charged under Section 112 in the past five years. Rights groups argue the law is now applied so broadly that it suppresses dissent and curtails legitimate political debate.
The outcome of Thaksin’s trial carries profound implications—not just for the Shinawatra family but for Thailand’s broader political trajectory. A guilty verdict could symbolise the definitive decline of one of Asia’s most influential political dynasties, while also underscoring the enduring strength of the monarchy-military establishment. For his supporters, it would mark another chapter in what they see as a decades-long campaign to sideline a populist movement that once commanded overwhelming electoral support.
As Thailand waits for the court’s decision, the verdict has already amplified the sense of uncertainty and instability that has defined the kingdom’s politics for more than two decades.
