Paris, 13 August 2026 – The International Energy Agency has reduced its 2026 global oil-supply forecast to 102 million barrels a day as prolonged shipping disruptions constrain Gulf exports and accelerate the depletion of available inventories.
The revised projection represents a decline of 4.3 million barrels a day from 2025 and is lower than the agency’s estimate a month earlier. The downgrade reflects continuing hostilities involving the United States and Iran and the absence of an agreement that would restore unhindered transit through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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