Singapore, 9 September 2026 – Asian refiners are adjusting operating rates and crude sourcing as prolonged maritime risk in the Middle East disrupts normal supply calculations. A scenario extending the conflict through year-end has reduced the forecast for global fourth-quarter 2026 refinery crude runs by 1.4 million barrels a day, with Asia accounting for much of the revision.
The adjustment reflects altered shipping routes, crude availability and product-market economics rather than a uniform shortage. Refineries must compare freight, insurance, feedstock quality and product cracks when deciding whether to run harder or cut throughput. Plants configured for a narrow crude slate have less flexibility when traditional cargoes become delayed or expensive.
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