Asia, 24 October 2025 – In a concerted effort to counter China’s dominance in critical-mineral supply chains, President Donald Trump is poised to sign a series of new agreements in Asia that would secure raw-material access and lock in partnerships ahead of a high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
U.S. officials say the planned deals target metals and minerals essential to high-tech, defence and clean-energy value chains, including rare earths, lithium and nickel, intending to broaden supply sources beyond China and bolster U.S. industrial resilience. While specifics remain undisclosed, the timing underscores a deliberate strategy to return to Asia with deal momentum before engaging with Beijing.
The announcement coincides with a recently-signed U.S.–Australia critical-minerals framework, worth approximately US$8.5 billion, which aims to wean the U.S. and its allies off Chinese control of strategic inputs.
Trump’s Asia itinerary reportedly includes stops in Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, culminating in a face-to-face with Xi on the margins of the Asia‑Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Analysts see the push as signalling to Beijing that Washington is prepared to tie economic opportunities to geopolitical leverage.
Strategic Implications for Asia
- Diversified supply chains: Asian mineral-rich economies may find new opportunities to partner with the U.S., gaining investment and infrastructure development in exchange for resource access.
- Middle-power leverage: Countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, with significant critical-mineral endowments, are likely to receive heightened attention as the U.S. seeks alternatives to China-centric sourcing.
- China’s pushback: Xi will likely view the initiative as part of a broader U.S. containment strategy. Beijing may respond with its own export controls or tight licensing, raising risks of escalation.
- Economic and geopolitical nexus: The melding of resource diplomacy and strategic competition underscores how Asian economies now occupy the fault-lines of global industrial and security competition.
Risks & Uncertainties
- Agreements remain non-binding and track records show large-scale resource deals often stall over tax, environment, export and social issues.
- China may use export-controls or licensing delays to retaliate, tightening its grip or withholding necessary technology.
- Regional partners may balk at aligning too closely with the U.S. if it disrupts their trade with China, particularly in economies highly dependent on the Chinese market.
- Implementation timelines matter: mineral and processing capacity take years to develop, so near-term supply impact may be limited.
Outlook
Expect the U.S. to highlight one or more contract signings during Trump’s Asia trip as proof of momentum. However, close watchers say real effects, lower dependencies on China, new supply chain diversification, will emerge over 12-24 months. For Asian suppliers, the opportunity is clear; for China, the challenge is growing.
