BANGKOK, 27 January 2026 — Thailand’s economy is expected to grow 2.0% in 2026, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, maintaining its earlier forecast as strength in tourism and domestic demand is expected to offset a slowdown in export growth.
Exports, a key driver of Thailand’s economy, are forecast to rise 1.0% this year, compared with an earlier projection of a 1.5% decline, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the finance ministry’s fiscal policy office, told a press conference.
However, the ministry said export growth is expected to slow sharply from the 12.9% expansion recorded in 2025, citing a high base effect, softer global trade volumes and risks stemming from U.S. trade countermeasures.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy continues to face multiple headwinds, including an appreciating baht, U.S. tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections scheduled for early February.
The baht has strengthened about 1.1% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, following a 9% gain in 2025, raising concerns over competitiveness in both the export and tourism sectors.
“Tourism will be the main growth engine in 2026,” Vinit said, adding that foreign tourist arrivals are projected to reach 35.5 million, up from about 33 million last year, though still below the pre-pandemic record of nearly 40 million visitors in 2019.
Private consumption is forecast to expand 2.5%, supported by resilient domestic activity, while private investment is projected to grow 3.2% as state-promoted projects begin to materialise, the ministry said.
In contrast, government investment is expected to contract by 1.7%, as a political transition and administrative processes are likely to delay the fiscal 2027 budget by around three months. Government consumption is projected to grow 1.3%, according to the ministry.
Headline inflation is expected to average 0.3% in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 0.5% and following negative inflation of 0.14% last year. Thailand’s central bank targets an inflation range of 1% to 3%.
“There will be more frequent discussions with the central bank on the inflation target, in every three months instead of once a year, to bring inflation back within the target range as quickly as possible,” Vinit said.
The ministry warned that risks remain from global trade volatility, as well as elevated household and small business debt levels.
For 2025, the economy is estimated to have expanded 2.2%, with growth in the final quarter projected at 1.8%, Vinit said. Official 2025 gross domestic product data will be released next month by the state planning agency. Thailand’s economy expanded 2.5% in 2024.
The United States has imposed a 19% tariff on imports from Thailand, in line with measures applied to other countries in the region, adding further pressure to the export outlook.
